财报分析-中国船舶

　　资产类别结构分析

　　项目2014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/312018/12/312019/12/31金融资产1,512,119.001,456,402.001,517,232.001,661,363.001,515,947.001,465,297.00金融资产占比42.15%41.68%38.13%48.17%58.36%54.97%长期股权投资58,884.0077,619.0050,767.00153,626.00134,354.00124,897.00长期股权投资占比1.64%2.22%1.28%4.45%5.17%4.69%营运资本347,077.00450,252.001,009,191.00-147,774.00-487,622.00-411,889.00营运资本占比9.67%12.89%25.36%-4.28%-18.77%-15.45%长期经营资产1,669,583.001,509,999.001,402,008.001,781,964.001,434,760.001,487,165.00长期经营资产占比46.54%43.21%35.23%51.66%55.24%55.79%资产合计3,587,663.003,494,272.003,979,198.003,449,179.002,597,439.002,665,470.00

　　经营资产结构分析

　　项目2014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/312018/12/312019/12/31营运资本347,077.00450,252.001,009,191.00-147,774.00-487,622.00-411,889.00营运资本占比17.21%22.97%41.85%-9.04%-51.48%-38.31%其中:营运资产1,937,591.001,741,786.002,029,904.001,382,155.001,093,703.001,054,567.00营运负债1,590,514.001,291,534.001,020,713.001,529,929.001,581,325.001,466,456.00长期经营资产1,669,583.001,509,999.001,402,008.001,781,964.001,434,760.001,487,165.00长期经营资产占比82.79%77.03%58.15%109.04%151.48%138.31%经营资产合计2,016,660.001,960,251.002,411,199.001,634,190.00947,138.001,075,276.00

　　资产期限结构分析

　　项目2014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/312018/12/312019/12/31金融资产1,512,119.001,456,402.001,517,232.001,661,363.001,515,947.001,465,297.00营运资本347,077.00450,252.001,009,191.00-147,774.00-487,622.00-411,889.00短期资产合计1,859,196.001,906,654.002,526,423.001,513,589.001,028,325.001,053,408.00短期资产占比51.82%54.57%63.49%43.88%39.59%39.52%长期股权投资58,884.0077,619.0050,767.00153,626.00134,354.00124,897.00长期经营资产1,669,583.001,509,999.001,402,008.001,781,964.001,434,760.001,487,165.00长期资产合计1,728,467.001,587,618.001,452,775.001,935,590.001,569,114.001,612,062.00长期资产占比48.18%45.43%36.51%56.12%60.41%60.48%资产合计3,587,663.003,494,272.003,979,198.003,449,179.002,597,439.002,665,470.00

　　息税前利润结构

　　项目2014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/312018/12/312019/12/31息税前经营利润-3,030.007,953.00-221,529.00-143,158.0063,395.00120,146.00息税前经营利润占比-7.36%15.58%117.36%200.29%91.76%94.90%对联营企业和合营企业的股权投资收益-3,625.00280.00-8,538.00-4,540.00-10,077.00-15,606.00对联营企业和合营企业的股权投资收益占比-8.80%0.55%4.52%6.35%-14.59%-12.33%息税前金融资产收益47,836.5142,824.7441,307.7876,221.8415,771.7922,064.14息税前金融资产收益占比116.16%83.88%-21.88%-106.64%22.83%17.43%息税前利润41,181.5151,057.74-188,759.22-71,476.1669,089.79126,604.14

　　从上面几个表格可以看出，中国船舶的金融资产保持的比较平衡，从2014年的151亿到2019年的146亿，基本维持在150亿左右，占比随着总资产的下降而上升，从比例来看，金融资产是比较充足的，说明公司不缺钱

　　经营资产结构中以长期经营资产为主，所以中国船舶应该是属于重资产企业

　　从息税前利润结构来看，公司由于经营情况不佳，处于亏损或微利的状况，后几年随着经营状况的改善，逐渐恢复正常，总得业说中国船舶的利润还是以经营利润为主，在正常的年份占比都在95%以上。

　　投资活动现金流量

　　投资活动产生的现金流量2014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/312018/12/312019/12/31(1)处置固定资产、无形资产和其他长期资产收回的现金净额1,837.0085.009,774.00623.0021,648.0026,478.00(2)购建固定资产、无形资产和其他长期资产支付的现金63,380.0066,618.0019,679.0032,386.0030,417.0076,235.00(3)长期资产净投资额=(2)-(1)61,543.0066,533.009,905.0031,763.008,769.0049,757.00(4)固定资产折旧,油气资产104,147.8498,204.76102,572.15100,654.8379,294.5668,477.64(5)无形资产摊销5,503.744,782.074,707.094,718.083,493.743,643.93(6)长期待摊费用摊销4,230.693,302.837,355.45793.96885.21918.25(7)处置固定资产，无形资产和其它长期资产的损失611.86152.15-6,824.68-385.73-16,723.75-15,704.00(8)固定资产报废损失0.000.009.26169.88373.54366.41(9)长期资产新投资额=(3)-(4)-(5)-(6)-(7)-(8)-52,951.13-39,908.82-97,914.27-74,188.03-58,554.31-7,945.23(10)期初长期资产净额0.001,669,583.001,509,999.001,402,008.001,781,964.001,434,760.00(11)长期资产扩张性资本支出比例=(9)/(10)*100%0.00-2.39%-6.48%-5.29%-3.29%-0.55%处置子公司及其他营业单位收到的现金净额13,282.000.000.000.000.006,750.00取得子公司及其他营业单位支付的现金净额0.000.000.0037,878.0034,578.000.00净合并额-13,282.000.000.0037,878.0034,578.00-6,750.00

　　从投资活动现金流量来看，中国船舶每年的新的扩张性支出都是负的，同时有个别年份有一些少量的并购的扩张性活动，但总得来说以维持现有规模并略有收缩为主，结合公司有大量的金融资产来看，它的经营非常保守的，结合后面的营业收入数据来看，是一个衰退型的企业。

　　毛利分析

　　项目2014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/312018/12/312019/12/31营业收入2,832,367.002,776,385.002,145,707.001,669,110.001,691,031.002,313,619.00营业收入增长率0.00-1.98%-22.72%-22.21%1.31%36.82%营业成本2,554,403.002,540,557.001,765,054.001,374,348.001,465,744.002,068,994.00营业成本增长率0.00-0.54%-30.52%-22.14%6.65%41.16%毛利277,964.00235,828.00380,653.00294,762.00225,287.00244,625.00毛利增长率0.00-15.16%61.41%-22.56%-23.57%8.58%

　　毛利率分析

　　项目2014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/312018/12/312019/12/31营业收入2,832,367.002,776,385.002,145,707.001,669,110.001,691,031.002,313,619.00营业成本2,554,403.002,540,557.001,765,054.001,374,348.001,465,744.002,068,994.00毛利277,964.00235,828.00380,653.00294,762.00225,287.00244,625.00毛利率9.81%8.49%17.74%17.66%13.32%10.57%

　　经营活动现金流量分析

　　项目2014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/312018/12/312019/12/31销售商品、提供劳务收到的现金2,855,869.002,335,302.001,786,422.002,688,719.002,047,315.002,412,373.00营业总收入2,832,367.002,776,385.002,145,707.001,669,110.001,691,031.002,313,619.00营业收入现金含量86.18%71.89%71.16%137.68%103.48%89.12%购买商品、接受劳务支付的现金2,893,551.002,625,834.002,077,453.001,760,272.001,948,538.002,392,342.00支付给职工以及为职工支付的现金239,231.00224,164.00213,368.00195,157.00169,204.00192,331.00营业成本2,554,403.002,540,557.001,765,054.001,374,348.001,465,744.002,068,994.00营业税金及附加6,469.006,090.009,775.009,434.0011,991.006,059.00销售费用11,879.0017,022.0020,471.008,840.0012,137.0019,875.00管理费用215,460.00211,102.00198,724.00207,382.0099,191.0093,290.00营业总成本2,788,211.002,774,771.001,994,024.001,600,004.001,589,063.002,188,218.00成本费用付现率97.28%88.96%99.75%106.23%115.45%102.23%经营活动产生的现金流量净额-89,034.00-407,321.00-396,106.00807,531.00224,890.0032,487.00

　　中国船舶的营业收入与营业成本都呈现下降的趋势，但因为其营业成本的下降比率超过了成本的下降，所以毛利率呈现的是略微上升的状况，成长性总体来说是比较不理想的。

　　经营活动产生的现金总体呈现的是上升的状况，从2014年的-8.9亿上升到2019年的3.2亿左右，说明营业收入有转化成实实在在的现金，成长质量还是不错的

　　股东权益回报率因素分析

　　项目2014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/312018/12/312019/12/31息税前经营利润率1.45%1.84%-8.80%-4.28%4.09%5.47%资产周转率0.790.790.540.480.650.87财务成本效应比率2.281.561.062.431.531.39财务杠杆倍数1.831.802.362.301.261.27企业所得税效应比率98.94%77.95%115.93%103.40%96.97%97.56%股东权益回报率4.74%3.19%-13.77%-12.00%4.96%8.18%

　　中国船舶的股东权益回报率总体呈现上升的趋势，回报率相对来说比较低，处于下游水平

　　历史经营活动现金流和经营资产自由现金流分析

　　项目2014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/312018/12/312019/12/31销售商品、提供劳务收到的现金2,855,869.002,335,302.001,786,422.002,688,719.002,047,315.002,412,373.00经营活动产生的现金流量净额-89,034.00-407,321.00-396,106.00807,531.00224,890.0032,487.00固定资产折旧104,147.8498,204.76102,572.15102,572.15100,654.8379,294.56无形资产和长期待摊费用摊销9,734.438,084.9012,062.545,512.054,378.964,562.18处置长期资产的损失611.86152.15-6,824.68-385.73-16,723.75-15,704.00经营资产自由现金流-203,528.13-513,762.82-503,916.01699,832.53136,579.96-35,665.73自由现金流增长率-152.43%1.92%238.88%-80.48%-126.11%自由现金流复合增长率-250.93%-164.30%-29.41%

　　中国船舶的自由现金流总体呈现的是上升的状况，从2014年的负20亿到2019年的负3.5亿左右，但由于现金流都是负的，说明公司的自由现金流还是非常缺乏的。

　　从盈利能力矩阵来看，中国船舶的资产回报率很低同时自由现金流非常缺乏，说明中国船舶的经营风险非常高。

　　财务杠杆效应

　　项目2014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/312018/12/312019/12/31财务成本效应比率2.281.561.062.431.531.39财务杠杆倍数1.831.802.362.301.261.27财务杠杆效应4.172.802.505.601.921.76

　　债权人保障程度

　　项目2014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/312018/12/312019/12/31短期借款+长期借款1,352,110.001,787,649.002,301,866.001,872,184.00647,688.00672,309.00股东权益1,959,153.001,944,464.001,685,880.001,499,498.002,061,925.002,106,748.00债务对股东权益比率0.690.921.371.250.310.32息税前利润41,181.5151,057.74-188,759.22-71,476.1669,089.79126,604.14利息费用-52,618.51-28,532.2011,491.34102,516.94-36,330.59-49,964.82利息保障倍数-0.78-1.79-16.43-0.70-1.90-2.53

　　营运资本长期化率

　　项目2014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/312018/12/312019/12/31流动资产3,399,539.003,503,480.003,746,135.003,281,396.002,947,144.002,816,085.00速动资产2,159,630.002,070,210.002,182,943.002,378,622.002,272,772.002,138,031.00流动负债2,073,569.002,576,773.001,741,203.001,888,650.001,723,271.001,665,320.00流动比率1.641.362.151.741.711.69速动比率1.040.801.251.261.321.28长期股权投资58,884.0077,619.0050,767.00153,626.00134,354.00124,897.00长期经营资产1,669,583.001,509,999.001,402,008.001,781,964.001,434,760.001,487,165.00长期资产合计1,728,467.001,587,618.001,452,775.001,935,590.001,569,114.001,612,062.00长期债务844,919.00478,278.001,560,246.001,185,156.00183,006.00255,702.00股东权益1,959,153.001,944,464.001,685,880.001,499,498.002,061,925.002,106,748.00长期资本合计2,804,072.002,422,742.003,246,126.002,684,654.002,244,931.002,362,450.00营运资本347,077.00450,252.001,009,191.00-147,774.00-487,622.00-411,889.00营运资本长期化率309.90%185.48%177.70%-506.90%-138.59%-182.18%营业收入2,832,367.002,776,385.002,145,707.001,669,110.001,691,031.002,313,619.00

　　中国船舶的财务杠杆倍数总体呈现下降的情况，说明公司的有息债务越来越少，债务对股东权益比率也呈现同样的情况，利息保障倍数基本都是负的，有几年是因为其息税前利润为负引起的，有几年是因为其金融资产产生的利息收入超过了有息债务的利息支出。

　　传统的流动，速动比率保持的比较平衡，比率不是太高，营运资本长期化率近几年基本都是负的，因为其营运资本都是负的，说明公司基本没有流动性风险。总体来说中国船舶的财务健康状况水平处于中游水平

　　零增长模型2019年的自由现金流为基准-35,665.73折现率7.35%营运类资产的价值-485106.54加:金融资产1,465,297.00加:长期股权投资32,050.00减:企业债务672,309.00企业价值339931.46少数股东比例26.83%归属于母公司股东的价值248737.12股本(万股)137812每股内在价值（元)1.80

　　由于中国船舶是一个衰退型的企业，所以我偏向于用零增长模型对其进行估值，最后得出的估值结果是1.8元，留出10%的安全边界，我觉得在1.62元以下买入比较合理

　　在整理这份分析报告时，中国船舶2020年第三季度的财报已经发布了，通过对第三季度的营业收入及现金流的大致分析，发现2020年中国船舶的经营资产自由现金流同比巨幅下降，预计其2020年的自由现金流也会下降非常多，个人认为严重影响其估值。

　　总得来说中国船舶的经营活动非常保守，账上有大量的现金，却没有投资合适的项目，采取的是收缩的策略，现金流非常缺乏，但金融资产也比较充足，带给股东的回报率处于下游水平，财务健康状况一般。